The Supreme Court, it seems, is the place to watch these days. Or, at least, the place to *try* to watch. The legal arguments over Trump-era tariffs have drawn the attention of more than just the usual crowd of lawyers and policy wonks.
Prediction markets, where people put real money on the line to forecast future events, are also watching closely. And the numbers, as of today, are not looking good for the former president.
Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are showing that traders are betting heavily against the Supreme Court backing Trump’s tariffs. The odds? A mere 24% chance of a win, as of this afternoon. That’s a pretty stark number, especially when you consider the stakes.
Earlier this week, oral arguments took place, and the markets reacted quickly. It’s a bit like watching a live sporting event, except the players are lawyers, and the game is the future of trade policy.
One trader on Polymarket, who preferred to remain anonymous, said they were “surprised by the initial reaction.” They added, “I thought the court might lean differently, but the market seems pretty clear.”
The tariffs in question involve billions of dollars in imported goods. The case hinges on whether the president overstepped his authority when imposing these tariffs. The legal arguments are complex, involving interpretations of trade law and executive power, but the market’s reaction is clear.
This isn’t the first time prediction markets have offered a glimpse into the likely outcomes of political events. During the 2020 election, they offered a surprisingly accurate view of the race, even as traditional polls wavered. This time, the numbers are a bit more focused: the Supreme Court and its potential decision.
The Supreme Court, of course, has the final say. No one knows for sure, and that’s the point, isn’t it? The markets are just a reflection of the collective bets, the best guesses, of everyone involved.
And it’s not just about Trump, of course. It’s about the future of trade, the balance of power, and the way the world works. Or, at least, the way it seems to be working, right now.
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